Population Aging in Italy: Demographic Trends, Economic and Healthcare Impacts, and Challenges for Welfare Sustainability

Abstract

This study analyzes demographic ageing and the sustainability of welfare systems across Italian macro-areas, combining descriptive indicators (% over 65, Aging Index, number of nursing homes, health expenditure) with statistical correlations and regression models. Results show that regions with higher per capita GDP (North-West, North-East, Center) also present higher ageing indicators, confirming the first part of the research hypothesis. At the same time, these areas exhibit a stronger socio-health infrastructure (nursing homes and hospital beds) and a lower relative fiscal burden of health expenditure compared to less wealthy areas (South, Islands). Statistical analysis (Pearson and Spearman correlations; exploratory OLS regressions) highlights strong positive associations between GDP, ageing, and health expenditure, and a negative relationship between GDP and the relative burden of healthcare spending. These findings suggest that while demographic ageing is more pronounced in economically advanced regions, the sustainability of welfare is comparatively less critical due to higher fiscal capacity and better service endowment.